The Supreme Court Mulls Obamacare; the Health Care Industry Mulls the Supreme Court

by Stuart M. Gerson

The three days of arguments about the constitutionality of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act are complete. The Justices of the Supreme Court of the United States have conducted their post-argument conference and are now turning their attention to the drafting and the discussions that will lead to a majority opinion and, likely, several dissents and concurrences. The Court's decision should be issued before the end of June. Health care companies and employers, like the rest of the population, await the ultimate decision. However, there are several matters that can be identified in the short run.

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Commonwealth Fund and Population Prepayments

Much of the work of the Commonwealth Fund and others seems to presume that payors are a necessary intermediary and should be the entities doling out population prepayment (aka capitation before it was a nasty word). However, it need not work out that way – particularly with House Dems’ concern that Medicare Advantage was profiteering.

It would be a small step for the new public plan likely to be created to make “population prepayments” directly to integrated health systems particularly because the covered lives under such a plan are likely to have the benefit of public reinsurance. Also, since that coverage will not be employer based it will be easier for those integrated systems to assume risk for that plan’s lives (no need for national networks).

Through such direct health system participation those systems would be incented to create the high performance integration these studies suggest is desirable. The Commonwealth Fund is about to release its new blue print . It will be interesting to see if such an evolution is being thought about.